Clinical efficacy of Early Administration of Convalescent Plasma among COVID-19 Cases in Egypt (preprint)

Abstract Importance: Early and effective treatment of COVID-19 is vital for control of SARS-CoV-2 infection Objectives: The primary objective of the study was to assess the degree of clinical improvement in severe and critically ill COVID-19 patients, treated early with early CPT. Designs: An interventional, single-arm, non-randomized clinical trial conducted in Egypt from April 15 to July 21, 2020. Settings: This was a multi-centre study conducted in 3 hospitals in Egypt. Participants: a total of 94 COVID-19 laboratory-confirmed patients using qRT-PCR were enrolled in the study. Intervention: All patients were administered with two plasma units (each unit is 200cc). The volume of donated plasma was 800cc. Main Outcome and Measures: Primary measure was the degree of clinical improvement among the COVID-19 patients who received CPT within seven days Results: A total of 94 patients were enrolled who received CPT either within seven days or after seven days of hospitalization. 82 were severely ill, 12 were critically ill. The average age remained 58 years (SD 15.1 years). Male were 69% and 49% patients got cured while 51% died with CFR 51%. 75% deaths were above 45years of age. The symptoms were dyspnoea (55%), fever (52%), cough (46%), and loss of taste and smell (21%), and cyanosis (15%). The most common co-morbidities among the <40 years remained Diabetes Mellitus (21%) and Asthma (14%). Among 40-60 years Hypertension (56%), Diabetes Mellitus (39%) and among >60 years age group Hypertension (57%) and Chronic Heart Disease (24%) were reported. CPT within seven days remained significant as compared with the CPT after seven days with the number of days to cure (p=0.007) and ICU stay (P=0.008) among severely ill cured cases. Conclusion and Relevance: Among patients with COVID-19 and severe or critical illness, the use of CPT along with routine standard therapy resulted in a statistically significant improvement when administered within seven days of hospital admission. However, plasma transfusion, irrespective of days to transfusion may not help treat critically ill patients. The overall mean time to cure in severely ill patients was 15 days if CPT provided within seven days with 65% cure rate. Trial Registration: Clinical Intervention identifier: MOHP_COVID-19_Ver1.1

Demographic and clinical features associated with in-hospital mortality in Egyptian COVID-19 patients: A retrospective cohort study (preprint)

Introduction: Since the worldwide emergence of the COVID-19, several protocols were used by different healthcare organisations. We evaluated in this study the demographic and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 disease in Egyptian population with special consideration for its mortality predictors. Methodology: 8162 participants (mean age 48.7 years,54.5% males) with RT-PCR positive COVID-19 were included. The electronic medical records were reviewed for demographic, clinical, laboratory, and radiologic features. The primary outcome was the in-hospital mortality rate. Results: The in-hospital mortality was 11.2%. There was a statistically significant strong association of in-hospital mortality with age >60 years old (OR:4.7; 95% CI 4.1-5.4;p<0.001), diabetes mellitus (OR:4.6; 95% CI 3.99-5.32;p<0.001), hypertension (OR:3.9; 95% CI 3.4-4.5;p<0.001), coronary artery disease (OR:2.7; 95% CI 2.2-3.2;p<0.001), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR:2.1; 95% CI 1.7-2.5;p<0.001), chronic kidney disease (OR:4.8; 95% CI 3.9-5.9;p<0.001), malignancy (OR:3.7; 95% CI 2.3-5.75;p<0.001), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio >3.1 (OR:6.4; 95% CI 4.4-9.5;P< 0.001), and ground glass opacities (GGOs) in CT chest (OR:3.5; 95% CI 2.84-4.4;P<0.001), respectively. There was a statistically significant moderate association of in-hospital mortality with male gender (OR:1.6; 95% CI 1.38-1.83;p<0.001) and smoking (OR:1.6; 95% CI 1.3-1.9;p<0.001). GGOs was reported as the most common CT finding (occurred in 73.1% of the study participants). Conclusions: This multicenter, retrospective study ascertained the higher in-hospital mortality rate in Egyptian COVID-19 patients with different comorbidities.

Determinants of the incidence and mortality rates of COVID-19 during the first six months of the pandemic; a cross-country study (preprint)

COVID-19 pandemic raises an extraordinary challenge to the healthcare systems globally. The governments are taking key measures to constrain the corresponding health, social, and economic impacts, however, these measures vary depending on the nature of the crisis and country-specific circumstances. Objectives Considering different incidence and mortality rates across different countries, we aimed at explaining variance of these variables by performing accurate and precise multivariate analysis with aid of suitable predictors, accordingly, the model would proactively guide the governmental responses to the crisis. Methods Using linear and exponential time series analysis, this research aimed at studying the incidence and mortality rates of COVID-19 in 18 countries during the first six months of the pandemic, and further utilize multivariate techniques to explain the variance in monthly exponential growth rates of cases and deaths with aid of a set of different predictors: the recorded Google mobility trends towards six categories of places, daily average temperature, daily humidity, and key socioeconomic attributes of each country. Results The analysis showed that changes in mobility trends were the most significant predictors of the incidence and mortality rates, temperature and humidity were also significant but to a much lesser extent, on the other hand, the socioeconomic attributes did not contribute significantly to explaining different incidence and mortality rates across countries. Conclusion Changes in mobility trends across countries dramatically affected the incidence and mortality rates across different countries, thus, it might be used as a proxy measure of contact frequency.